As real estate professionals, I am often asked about market conditions, Nort Scottsdale pricing trends and where we think the market will go. Here are my thoughts.
Key Market Insights:
Market Bifurcation: The Scottsdale market can be divided into two key segments:
Under $1M: More of a buyer’s market, with higher inventory and softer demand.
Above $1M: Still a seller’s market, though softening. This segment remains resilient due to:
Over 50% of transactions over $1.5M being cash.
Buyers in this price range can more easily absorb higher mortgage rates.
Scottsdale Sales History (Last 30 Days):
Median List Price: $1,477,500 (an increase in market value)
Market Action Index (MAI): 33, a slight increase from 32 last month, indicating stable market conditions. The MAI measures sales rate versus inventory; a higher index suggests more active market conditions.
Inventory: Currently at 1,290 single-family homes, down from previous levels, which keeps the market in seller’s territory.
Median Days on Market: 70, indicating relatively steady demand.
Price Changes: 47% of homes saw price reductions, while 3% saw price increases, indicating a balanced but slightly buyer-favoring market.
Price per Square Foot: $503, up from $488, reflecting rising per-square-foot values.
Scottsdale residential real estate values continue to climb
Market Trends:
$1M+ Market: This segment remains robust with stable to increasing prices. A key driver here is the ability of high-net-worth buyers to absorb higher mortgage costs and the large proportion of cash buyers (over 50% for homes above $1.5M).
Market Activity: While overall inventory has increased disproportionately to demand, the $1M+ segment is seeing less impact, maintaining more seller-favorable conditions.
Interest Rates & Affordability: Mortgage rates above 6% continue to affect affordability, particularly in lower price ranges, which may limit demand and appreciation.
Short-Term Outlook:
2025 Predictions: Expect more activity in early 2025, with seasonal variations in play. However, interest rates and geopolitical factors may continue to shape demand.
Geopolitical Risk: Global uncertainties could influence the market, adding a layer of unpredictability.
Concerns:
World Economy: Debt is at an all-time-high and turmoil across the world can always have an effect on market conditions. These unknowns are always present, however they seem to be a little more concerning as we head into 2025.
Inventory of single family homes is climbing, but is still considerably low.
Actionable Takeaways:
The Scottsdale real estate market is thriving, with the average listing price now exceeding $1.4M, attracting mostly cash buyers or those relocating from higher-priced communities who have greater purchasing flexibility. While inventory is slowly rising, home sales are increasing as well, driving up the price per square foot in response to growing demand. The luxury market, particularly the $2M+ segment, remains exceptionally strong, underscoring Scottsdale’s continued appeal and resilience in the current market environment.
To fully understand the current martlet in Scottsdale, Cave Creek, or Carefree, please call J. Todd Simpson of Russ Lyon Sotheby’s Interntaional Real Estate. (480)465-1504
Sotheby’s sells more luxury than any other Scottsdale brokerage!
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